The temperature has increased due to the effect of El Niño all over the world. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) of the European Union, after three years of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, there have been signs of the return of El Nino.
Meteorologists have estimated through climate models that the decrease in global temperature due to La Nina may be accelerated due to El Niño. It is said that in 2023 and 2024, the minimum temperature record may be broken all over the world. Global temperature has increased by 1.2 degrees Celsius. It is estimated that an increase in global temperature up to 1.5 degrees Celsius is possible due to the effect of El Nino.
The Indian Meteorological Department estimates that there is a 70 percent chance of El Nino during the monsoon in India. Its effect can be seen more in June-July and August. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and the Department, between 2001 and 2020, the effect of El Nino was observed in India for nine years. Out of these four years in 2003, 2005, 2009-10 and 2015-16, India also suffered drought. Therefore, it is said that this year may be a matter of concern.
Raghu Murtugudde, a professor of meteorology at the University of Maryland’s Earth System, estimates that the impact of El Nino will be intense in India, and a 15 percent drop in monsoon rainfall is possible. Similarly, in countries with South Africa, Indonesia, Australia and the Pacific Islands, the situation may worsen due to heat. In many large countries of the world, the situation may worsen due to drought and lack of rain. According to Carlo Buontempo, director of the CISCS, El Nino may be directly related to record-breaking heat in global temperatures. It is not clear whether such a situation could happen in 2023 and 2024. However, the effect of El Nino has been seen to intensify at the end of summer from the Quimet model and its effect can be seen in the global temperature by the end of this year.
Frederic Otto, a meteorologist at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, says that due to El Nino, the temperature increase will increase the scope of the side effects of climate change. This will be a new challenge for those countries of the world that are already facing heat waves, droughts and forest fires. The year 2023 will break the summer record set in 2016 due to the influence of El Nino.
In 2016, the global temperature record was broken due to the strong influence of El Nino. Although the effect of El Nino is not there, it seems that due to climate change, the level of mercury in the temperature around the world has intensified. Due to the continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions, the level of heat is increasing globally. This is the reason why the last eight years have recorded the highest heat which is an alarm bell signal for the future.
Glaciers in the world are melting at a rapid pace. The speed may increase due to El Nino. Due to this, the temperature can increase significantly. Scientists use a scientific object called Booey to understand the effects of El Nino. It floats in the ocean water. It calculates air temperature, wind speed and humidity along the ocean. Based on the data collected by Booi, it is estimated that El Nino will return at the present time.
Four major signs of increasing heat: 1) Due to El Niño effect, the equatorial and westward winds slow down. 2) Warm water moves eastward which intensifies the ocean surface temperature. 3) Due to the lack of rain, the minimum temperature also increases rapidly with the increase in temperature. 4) Due to the effect of El Nino, the wind speed is affected, which increases the heat even more.
Side effects of El Nino: 1) Due to the effect of El Nino, the risk of drought-like situation is more in India and Australia. 2) The increase in temperature at the surface of the sea will cause the greatest damage to the life of aquatic life. 3) Due to the effect of El Nino, there has been a decline in crop yields. 4) The situation may deteriorate further due to the crisis of rainfall with the increase in temperature.